Wednesday, September 26, 2007
Sunday, September 23, 2007
Dollar to collapse?(Interesting article)
Source: http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/business/ambrosevanspritchard/july07/willtheusdollarcollapse.htm
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Ambrose has covered world politics and economics for a quarter century, based in Europe, the
Dollar to collapse?
Posted by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard on 12 Jul 2007 at 16:48
Tags: Economics, dollar, World economy, Demographics, Currency markets
Disregard all hysteria. The ailing Greenback will not collapse this year, not in ten years, not in twenty years, not in half a century. There is no credible currency against which it can collapse. (Unless you count gold). None of the world's rival power blocs have the economic and demographic depth to challenge American dominance.
Built to last: the US dollar
Yes, we have a dollar rout on our hands. The markets have suddenly begun to discount a nasty crunch in the
This cannot last. It assumes that Europe has "decoupled" from
Whether or not Germany is really that immune to an exchange rate of $1.38 to the dollar (Professor Peter Bofinger - one of the country's five "Wise Men" - insists adamantly that it is not), it is in any case a foolish error to treat Germany as if it were a proxy for the whole eurozone. In reality, it has become the nemesis of Euro-land. While the Teutonic Tiger is indeed springing back to life after a decade-long slump, it is doing so by conquering market share from the Club Med bloc in what amounts to a beggar-thy-neighbour shift within the euro-zone. This has a zero-sum flavour to it.
Bernard Connolly, global strategist at Banque AIG and former head of economic research at the European Commission (the best informed euro-critic in the City, and the one most feared by
How has this "divergence" happened? In a nutshell, Germany has gained 20pc in unit labour cost competitiveness against France, 30pc against Spain, and 40pc against Italy since the currencies were locked together in 1995 (EU data). It has done so by screwing down wages, while Club Med has done what it always does -- let rip on wages.
Or put another way,
The longer the euro stays near $1.40, the more severe the coming crisis a year or eighteen months hence -- as the lagged effects of over-valuation turns boom to bust with even greater violence across Club Med. Sooner or later, the markets will twig in any case. The screams coming from southern
It will become obvious at some point that the euro-zone is just a glorified fixed-exchange rate system, not a sacred union. The euro is an orphan, stateless currency, lacking the mechanisms (a debt union, pension union, a shared treasury and fiscal transfers) that makes a currency union work over time.
Contrast that with the dollar, the currency of a nation forged by wars and the ancestral chords of memory (
Ah, but there is the
That said, anybody who follows the rhythms of
Which brings me to
No, the 21st Century will be the American century, just like the 20th Century. Americans may have to tighten their belts a bit after all the sins of Alan Greenspan and the Clinton-Bush debt generation. But the dollar will still be the world's reserve currency long after the euro has disappeared and the yen has been forgotten... Now, the Indian Rupee? Hhm. Another day.
Posted by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard on 12 Jul 2007 at 16:48
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What happens to Potter and crew after Deathly Hallows?
Spoiler alert, the following discuss and reveal important plot lines in the series. Don’t read if you don’t want to know.
I have just concluded reading the Harry Potter books, years 1 thru 7, I do have to say it was an amazing story to read. I will someday reread them. It was a well written and engaging story, of good and evil, loyalty, friendship, and morality. These are some answers to what happens after the story concludes and some questions answered about the last book, Deathly Hallows.
Your ''Hallows'' questions, answered!
Still stumped after finishing ''Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows''? We tackle some nagging queries
RE-CURSED Ralph Fiennes as Voldemort
SPOILER ALERT! The following article contains plot details about book 7. Read at your own risk.
How did Godric Gryffindor's sword get into the Sorting Hat after Griphook the goblin took it? —Amy
The same way it got from Dumbledore's office into Harry's hand in book 2 —because Neville Longbottom is a true (and brave) Gryffindor.
Why was Draco the rightful owner of the Elder Wand? How did that work against Voldemort? —Nick
Deep breath: When Draco disarmed Dumbledore at the end of book 6, the Elder Wand — won by the headmaster when he dueled Grindelwald — passed its allegiance to young Malfoy, not to Snape, whose ''murder'' of Dumbledore was prearranged and therefore not a defeat. Then Harry won Draco's wand at Malfoy Manor. So when Voldemort tried to kill Harry with the Elder Wand and Harry countered using Draco's wand, the two wands effectively canceled each other out. The Elder Wand realized it was attacking Draco's wand, refused to act against its master, and rebounded the Killing Curse back onto Voldemort. The Dark Lord never had a chance.
Who was the ugly baby crying in King's Cross that Dumbledore said couldn't be helped? —Andrea
The dead portion of Voldemort's soul that had been a part of Harry.
Why wasn't Kreacher freed when Harry gave him Regulus' locket? —Jenny
A locket isn't clothing.
Students at the new Hogwarts had to prove their blood status to attend. So how did Muggle-born Colin Creevey manage to stay? —Maddie
He didn't. Colin likely returned for the battle along with other members of Dumbledore's Army (alerted by their enchanted Galleons).
Voldemort's kin, the Gaunts, had kept the Resurrection Stone; Harry's ancestors held the Invisibility Cloak. Since those items' original owners were brothers, are Voldemort and Harry related? —Sara
Perhaps, but there's been so much intermarrying among wizard families that we suspect nearly everyone with magical blood is related to some degree.
Harry and Ginny's kids are all named after figures from their past. So what's the significance of Ron and Hermione's kids' names, Rose and Hugo? —Jen
Beats us. Because they have the same first letters as their parents' monikers? Or Rowling just liked the names? Or she's a serious Lost fan?
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Editor's Note: This Associated Press story contains spoilers. If you'd rather not know what happens in "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows," stop reading now.
"Harry Potter" author J.K. Rowling thought of the idea on a train trip in 1990.
She told fans Monday what she thinks happened to many of the book's characters after the final installment.
In a 90-minute live Web chat, she fielded some of the approximately 120,000 questions submitted by devotees. It was her first public comment since "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows" -- the last book in the series -- debuted on July 21.
Rowling said she was elated to share with fans the secrets she'd been harboring since she conjured up the idea for the boy wizard during a train journey across
"It is great to be able to do this at last," she said. "I've looked forward to it for so long!"
"Deathly Hallows" sold over 10 million copies in its first weekend. All seven books in the blockbuster series have sold a combined 335 million copies worldwide. 
In the novel -- which centers on Harry's journey to kill Lord Voldemort, the most powerful dark wizard of all time -- the young wizard learns of three powerful magical objects called the Deathly Hallows that, when combined, will make their owner the Master of Death, meaning he or she accepts mortality without fear.
Don't Miss
Rowling said in the online chat the hallows were in part inspired by "The Pardoner's Tale," one of Chaucer's "Canterbury Tales" about greed and death.
Rowling shared with fans, many of whom said they'd read the final book several times in the last week, where she imagines their favorite characters went after the series' conclusion.
SPOILER ALERT: Those who do not wish to know what happens to the characters after the book ends should stop reading here.
Rowling said the world was a sunnier, happier place after the seventh book and the death of Voldemort.
Harry Potter, who always voiced a desire to become an Auror, or someone who fights dark wizards, was named head of the Auror Department under the new wizarding government headed by his friend and ally, Kingsley Shacklebolt.
His wife, Ginny Weasley, stuck with her athletic career, playing for the Holyhead Harpies, the all-female Quidditch team. Eventually, Ginny left the team to raise their three children -- James, Albus and Lily -- while writing as the senior Quidditch correspondent for the wizarding newspaper, the Daily Prophet.
Harry's best friend Ron Weasley joined his brother, George, as a partner at their successful joke shop, Weasley's Wizard Wheezes. Hermione Granger, Ron's wife and the third person of the series' dark wizard fighting trio, furthered the rights of subjugated creatures, such as house elves, in the Department for the Regulation and Control of Magical Creatures before joining the magical law enforcement squad. The couple had two children -- Rose and Hugo.
Luna Lovegood, Harry's airily distracted friend with a love for imaginary animals who joins the fight against Voldemort in the Order of the
And what Muggle, or non-wizard, song would have been played at the funeral of Albus Dumbledore, the most brilliant and talented wizard the world had ever known?
"Surely 'I Did It My Way' by Frank Sinatra," Rowling told her fans, referring to the song "My Way," written by Paul Anka but popularized by Sinatra, among other singers.
As the chat wrapped up, Rowling thanked readers for their loyalty to the series.
"What can I say? Thank you so much for sticking with me, and with Harry, for so long. You have made this an incredible journey for Harry's author."
Friday, September 21, 2007
Ten predictions about climate change that have come true
Now, I have to say I am looking for ten predictions that didn’t come true. Makes you wonder, because I can remember hearing a lot of crazy and wild speculative prophecies back in the 90’s about what was going to happen if we didn’t reign in all of the pollution that we were spewing out. Granted they have started to come true, I am curious as to what hasn’t happened according to Chicken Little.
Source: http://entertainment.timesonline.co.uk/tol/arts_and_entertainment/books/article1984755.ece
From
June 25, 2007
Here are the hard facts about global warming that everyone should know, compiled for Times Online by internationally acclaimed writer, scientist and explorer Tim Flannery, author of The Weather Makers: Our changing climate and what it means for life on earth
Background
· The Weather Makers: Our Changing Climate and What It Means for Life on Earth
· The Weather Makers: extract 1
· The Weather Makers: extract 2
Background
· £4bn to stop big drought killing heart of Australia
· More hunger and hurricanes on the way
· Darfur conflict warning of climate change peril
· Help, I'm stuck in a climate change conundrum and trying to stay cool
· When it comes to climate change, I'll take a small bet that Pascal was right
Ten predictions made by climate scientists that have come true (or are becoming true)
1. That the Earth would warm as more CO2 was put into the atmosphere (Svante Arrhenius in 1893)
2. That we'd begin to see noticable changes to Earth's climate by around 2000 (some IPCC scientists ).
3. That sea-level would start rising
4. That Earth's Ice would start melting rapidly (James Hanson)
5. That hurricanes would increase in intensity (this one goes back to Alfred Russel Wallace in 1900)
6. That species would start going extinct as a result of climate change.
7. That
8. That tropical diseases would increase
9. That food crops would be adversely affected
10. That the CO2 would begin to acidify the ocean
The ten biggest changes to the weather wrought by climate change
1. Shorter winters
2. Less runoff into dams and reservoirs in many regions of the world
3. More violent and longer hurricanes
4. Less chilly nights
5. Less predictable seasonal conditions
6. Less snow
7. More heat waves
8. Less rain in many regions at various seasons
9. More severe storms in the
10. Generally warmer conditions
The ten places in the world / animals in the world most endangered by global warming
1. The glorious
2. Amphibians everywhere (a third of all species are already gravely endangered or extinct.
3. Coral reefs
4. Species on mountaintops (many populations are already extinct.
5. The tundra
6. The
7. The
8.
9. The Amazon, where drying will affect forests and rivers
10. The boreal forests, here pest infestations are destroying vast areas of trees.
Tim Flannery is an internationally acclaimed writer, scientist and explorer. As a field zoologist he discovered and named more than thirty new species of mammals, including two tree-kangaroos. Sir David Attenborough described him as being ‘in the league of the all-time great explorers like Dr David Livingstone’. His latest book, The Weather Makers: Our changing climate and what it means for life on earth , is published in paperback by Penguin
Sunday, September 16, 2007
Equal justice for the Jena six
The Jena Six, are there police and the DA not doing they’re jobs? The 3rd circuit court of appeal in
Why is this not a hate crime? Why have the police not caught and charged the students that instigated and baited those six. The students that hung the three nooses from those black kids sat under tree? Why have they not filed charge against them? Yes we can not allow vigilantism to go unpunished, but there needs to be justice. Even and fair! Not lopsided, this case reeks of something and it’s not right. If this was reversed, as in they were white assailants; this would be a federal case under the hate crime statute.
Also the fact that these kids shouldn’t have been tried as adults for this charge really shows the DA is overreaching. But he used the attempted murder charge that he drummed up to get him into the adult court, and then reduced it. Why didn’t the judge let them move it out of adult court? Gotta love the good ole’ south!
Thursday, September 13, 2007
Why is it so difficult for Americans to 'discuss' immigration?
This topic has been difficult for me to find a starting point. I started out trying to talk about another aspect. However I kept coming back to this one word, immigration. I feel that I have to discuss this one first before I can tackle any of the other topics that spider web out from here. So here goes…
My biggest aggravation with this issue is why nobody brings up the cause of why this has gotten so out of hand, you know the root cause. This was businesses trying to save a buck and there fore hiring immigrants for various reasons. Businesses therefore influenced the governments, both Mexican and American, to enact uncontrollable, short sighted and expensive immigration policies. I was doing some research on the internet about what this topic and came across a great study from the Center for Immigration Studies titled Flawed Assumptions Underlying Guest worker Programs. here is another study, The Impact of Agriculture Guest Worker Programs conducted by The National Foundation of American Policy. Now I haven’t personally read both of these studies all the way through, so I don’t know what kind of a bias is in them, or even if it’s partisan. There is a lot of underlying emotion that is going to inevitably come out. This touches so many of us in ways that we haven’t thought about. I’m getting the vibe that there is a lot of resentment brewing underneath the surface of this country. True that all of these workers, which are coming mostly from
So now we have over eight million workers that have established themselves here, and started families. Poor people are good at that. What do does the government do? Deport the parents that have come here illegally? Then you’ll have a fiasco like that kid back in the 1998 that was getting deported to
When it comes to the migrants that had to wait in line to come here from all the other countries that aren’t
We all hate to be forced into things, unfortunately now we have to talk about this and try to check our emotions at the door. I don’t pretend to know anything which I discuss here. I just give my two cents. I do know that this is something that needs to be addressed soon, because it is only going to get worse. We can’t change the past and we can’t predict the future, we can however influence it. We need to learn that we cannot control or plan for everything. The road to hell is paved with the best of intentions.
Tuesday, September 11, 2007
The way to win people over
Source: http://www.westegg.com/unmaintained/carnegie/win-friends.html
How to Win Friends and Influence People
This is Dale Carnegie's summary of his book, from 1936
Table of Contents
1. Fundamental Techniques in Handling People
2. Six Ways to Make People Like You
3. How to Win People to Your Way of Thinking
4. Be a Leader: How to Change People Without Giving Offense or Arousing Resentment
Fundamental Techniques in Handling People
- Don't criticize, condemn or complain.
- Give honest and sincere appreciation.
- Arouse in the other person an eager want.
Six ways to make people like you
- Become genuinely interested in other people.
- Smile.
- Remember that a person's name is to that person the sweetest and most important sound in any language.
- Be a good listener. Encourage others to talk about themselves.
- Talk in terms of the other person's interests.
- Make the other person feel important - and do it sincerely.
Win people to your way of thinking
- The only way to get the best of an argument is to avoid it.
- Show respect for the other person's opinions. Never say, "You're wrong."
- If you are wrong, admit it quickly and emphatically.
- Begin in a friendly way.
- Get the other person saying "yes, yes" immediately.
- Let the other person do a great deal of the talking.
- Let the other person feel that the idea is his or hers.
- Try honestly to see things from the other person's point of view.
- Be sympathetic with the other person's ideas and desires.
- Appeal to the nobler motives.
- Dramatize your ideas.
- Throw down a challenge.
Be a Leader: How to Change People Without Giving Offense or Arousing Resentment
A leader's job often includes changing your people's attitudes and behavior. Some suggestions to accomplish this:
- Begin with praise and honest appreciation.
- Call attention to people's mistakes indirectly.
- Talk about your own mistakes before criticizing the other person.
- Ask questions instead of giving direct orders.
- Let the other person save face.
- Praise the slightest improvement and praise every improvement. Be "hearty in your approbation and lavish in your praise."
- Give the other person a fine reputation to live up to.
- Use encouragement. Make the fault seem easy to correct.
- Make the other person happy about doing the thing you suggest.
Ten rules for being Human
Source: http://www.bluinc.com/free/human10.htm
Ten Rules for Being Human
by Cherie Carter-Scott
- You will receive a body. You may like it or hate it, but it's yours to keep for the entire period.
- You will learn lessons. You are enrolled in a full-time informal school called, "life."
- There are no mistakes, only lessons. Growth is a process of trial, error, and experimentation. The "failed" experiments are as much a part of the process as the experiments that ultimately "work."
- Lessons are repeated until they are learned. A lesson will be presented to you in various forms until you have learned it. When you have learned it, you can go on to the next lesson.
- Learning lessons does not end. There's no part of life that doesn't contain its lessons. If you're alive, that means there are still lessons to be learned.
- "There" is no better a place than "here." When your "there" has become a "here", you will simply obtain another "there" that will again look better than "here."
- Other people are merely mirrors of you. You cannot love or hate something about another person unless it reflects to you something you love or hate about yourself.
- What you make of your life is up to you. You have all the tools and resources you need. What you do with them is up to you. The choice is yours.
- Your answers lie within you. The answers to life's questions lie within you. All you need to do is look, listen, and trust.
- You will forget all this.
