http://english.aljazeera.net//news/europe/2010/04/201041692933434631.html
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
Friday, May 14, 2010
Holy shit, the gulf oil geyser is a BIG deal
When I read this article it made my stomach drop. This is one of those things that will leave you dumb founded. As you begin to truly appreciate the gravity of the situation in the gulf. What is the price that we as society are we willing to pay for our "way off life"?
Yeah, this guy plays up some biblical references, however the meat of this really sounds legit. Can anyone rebuke this article?
A volcano of oil erupting
May 13, 8:11 AM
Breakthrough Energy ExaminerSterling Allan
The following article was written by my associate, by Paul Noel with some editing and input from me.
New video showing largest hole from pipe 5 feet in diameter spewing oil and natural gas at ~4 barrels per second, along with analysis of the amount of oil on the surface, supports the estimates closer to 1 million barrels per day erupting from this hole BP popped in the ocean floor that contains trillions of barrels of oil and natural gas.
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Mainstream reports are starting to discuss the fact that the oil slick rising from the oil well blowout in the Gulf of Mexico simply has to be a whole lot larger than first reported.
My first report on this stated that the total could easily be 5,000 barrels per day. I said this when the report was that only 1,000 barrels per day was the stated total. I was being cautious because I knew the total was much higher and I knew the public would not believe the real totals. Most people simply could not imagine a well of the size involved.
Now I will discuss the real facts that are known and what the educated guesses on the topic indicate. Prepare to get your jaw off of the floor. The facts are stunning.
Pre-Drilling Estimates and Assurances
BP estimated a spill of 165,000 barrels per day would not even reach land! That is what they told the US Government before they drilled the well. They had excellent science on their side, which you can begin to comprehend when you understand how oil reacts in salt water, as we will briefly discuss belowl.
The fact that the spill has reached land clearly states that the size of the spill is probably well above 200,000 barrels per day. Yes, that's BARRELS, not gallons. There are 42 gallons per barrel.
To get a full estimate we have to look at the process of sinking an oil slick and count money. A newly released video of the larger of the two leaks also contributes to our understanding of a minimum estimate of the flow erupting from this man-induced volcano of oil.
When An Oil Spill Originates on the Surface
Here is what happens when oil hits the salt water. If it is poured on top of the sea, oil begins to do several things. First some of it dissolves in the salt water. This dissolving is a bit limited but amounts to several percent per day of the spill exposure to the ocean. Some of the oil evaporates. This is several percent per day. This slows over time. As the oil dissolves and evaporates the parts that do this are primarily volatile fractions. These are things like Gasoline and other light components that go away pretty quickly. Once these are gone the remaining oil is heavy fraction crude. This begins to sink into the water very slowly, eventually falling to the ocean bottom over about 6 weeks. Typically this floats into an area where the shoreline is and embeds about 18 inches deep in the sand. This buried oil is not harmless. Just because the beach might appear on the surface to be clear, the sub-surface oil continues its toxic work. It locates precisely where the little sea creatures live, and it goes on killing them for about 10 years.
The reason a slick would carry farther than predicted is that the salt water is saturated with oil and the air around it is saturated, so the slick cannot dissipate. In the case of the BP Gulf leak, the size of the slick and the location of on shore oil say this slick represents at least 2 times the amount of oil BP estimated would never reach land -- or 330,000 barrels per day, minimum. This is an educated guess, borne out by aerial photos and the like.
When Oil Shoots Up Through 5000 Feet of Salt Water -- Fractioning Column
In the case of the BP underwater hole, the slick is not being poured on top of the water. It is coming up from the ocean bottom that is 1 mile deep at that point. That fact raises stunning questions on how big the well releases are.
Rising through 5000 feet of water, the oil is going through a process that the oil men call Fractioning. Literally the tremendous pressure and temperature issue are the equivalent of taking the oil and boiling it in a cracking tower 5000 feet high. The oil and Natural Gas change on their way up. The very light, easy-to-evaporate parts are all that is rising to the surface.
The heavy oil isn't even getting to the top. That oil is losing its volatile fractions and is being dragged along with the rising column into the surface water where it is probably distributing as tar balls that are not being skimmed up or burned or otherwise disbursed.
In fact the chemicals added at the well head to disburse the oil, speed this process up. This oil is mixed into the water for the top 250 feet or so. Salinity and temperature issues probably keep this oil from ever reaching the very top of the water. The exact behavior here will not be known until studies are published some years from now. This is the first time humans have encountered a deep ocean leak of this magnitude. We're in uncharted territory here. Volume per volume, it is highly probable that due to this fractioning, this oil blowing into the ocean from a mile down is causing far more ecological trouble than a surface spill of similar size.
It is also certain that the slick volume on the surface is substantially lower than the rising column of oil. This is a key point to bear in mind. Because of this fractioning, what you see from the air on the surface of the water represents maybe just 20% of the volume of the various types of oil in that area. And we're talking an area the size of Maryland (10,000+ square miles) that is on the surface. The remaining 80% is under the surface; and all of it is highly toxic to the living organisms encountered.
All of this brings into serious question the volumes of oil rising. Every factor suggests massively higher numbers than what has been commonly reported.
Video of Slick
Here is a video that Alabama resident John Wathen shot as a volunteer pilot flew him over the area where the Deepwater Horizon oil rig sank. He said, "It's not a leak, it's a volcano spewing oil."
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As we watch this, and see other photos and videos from the air and ground/sea level, we can agree with Wathen's comment: "The Gulf appears to be bleeding," which is chilling, considering the prophesy in Revelation 8:8: "The second angel sounded his trumpet, and something like a huge mountain, all ablaze [appearance of the burning rig and slick], was thrown into the sea. A third of the sea turned into blood, a third of the living creatures in the sea died, and a third of the ships were destroyed." Most ships cannot travel through oil-infested waters without damage, any more than jets can fly through volcanic ash-infested airways.
Budgeting an Oil Rig
There is also another factor that says that the numbers are vastly higher than published to date. That is money. The BP investment in this well is very high -- close to a billion dollars. They must earn over $5,000,000 a day off of the well in order to pay back their investment. (That was before the explosion, and doesn't count the cleanup costs, etc)
They were, until the well blew, extremely happy with the well. In fact, on the day of the explosions, executives were on board celebrating the well's success.
This well had to produce over 60,000 barrels per day in order to break even. Shocking as it seems, this well would have been closed in and disposed of had it produced a minor total like 20,000 barrels per day. That would have been a "Dry Hole"! It wouldn't have paid for the pipes to bring the oil to market. The fact that BP management was aboard the rig and very happy, celebrating, just prior to the explosion says the well probably produces more than 200,000 barrels per day. It might well have produced 500,000 or more. Royalties to the US Government multiply the numbers for break even by about 2:1 so 500,000 barrels per day is very realistic. And that is what they would have been celebrating while things were under control.
With this in mind, remember that this well is running wild. A wild well produces far more than a well during normal production. This is why it is so dangerous. The conclusions for how much is coming up are simply unbelievable.
Natural Gas
The Natural Gas emissions are stunning as well. As you watch the film remember the pipe is 5 feet in diameter.
The Natural Gas doesn't just bubble to the top of the ocean and release into the air. It is absorbed into the water, like air is absorbed, and actually creates oxygen depletion. Hence, the emission of natural gas of these volumes into the sea is producing a significant area of Oxygen depleted water in the Gulf of Mexico which may be very large threat to fisheries and other wildlife in the area.
Never forget this point. The spill was "Impossible" by the view of the oil men prior to this. The biggest cost of the spill cleanup is being borne by the US Armed Forces such as the National Guard etc. None of these costs will ever be paid by BP. These costs will appear in taxes not in the price of oil. Alternative Oil is vastly cheaper and safer than this.
Video from Largest Leak
Having just seen (as I write) the film of the larger of the two leaks under sea, I can say with my trained eye that the volume coming out of the hole is in the order of 4 barrels per second (around 350,000 barrels per day).
As you look at this, it might seem like a small hole, and a small amount of oil. But bear in mind that the diameter of the pipe is 5 feet -- five feet wide! Those deep sea drilling rigs don't make small diameter holes like you might be used to seeing on land. Some of those huge drilling rigs, which make an aircraft carrier look like a toy boat in comparison, put down huge pipe. The rig that is on site now, Development-Driller-III, which is drilling a relief hole to reduce pressure from the hole dug by Deepwater Horizon, has a torque (drill twisting) rating of 78,450 ft-lbs. You who know torque will appreciate how huge that is. Yes, the hole opening is 5 feet in diameter, spewing approximately 4 barrels each second.
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What Could Yet Come
This is not a system in stasis. This is an out of control volcano of oil spewing up with 70,000 psi behind it, from a reservoir nearly the size of the Gulf, with an estimated trillions of barrels of oil and gas tucked away. What we are seeing now could be small compared to what may yet unfold if things break apart, as they can do under such circumstances. If this thing blew, it could be like the Yellowstone Caldera, except from below a mile of sea, with a 1/4-mile opening, with up to 150,000 psi of oil and natural gas behind it.
That would be an extinction event.
It is not likely to happen, but it is within the realm of possibilities.
That's the kind of stuff we're playing with here.
When we humans go tinkering around with this stuff, it is like the movie of men flying space ships to asteroids and setting off nuclear bombs to deflect them from hitting earth. Except in this case, setting off a nuclear bomb on top of a veritable volcano spewing oil from what is presently a relatively small hole in order to shut if off, doesn't seem like a very good idea.
Definitely Far Greater than the 5,000 Barrels / Day First Reported
I have pond in my yard. It holds about 400,000 gallons of water full. I can pump into it with a garden hose over 10,000 gallons of water per day. The hose is 5/8 inch diameter. (35 psi) Summer months I often do this to keep the fish alive. In barrels of oil my pond is just about 1000 barrels. The pond is about 9 feet deep and about 75 feet across. (Tiny pond) I think if you realize that the oil slick in the Gulf of Mexico covers about 9,000 square miles and it it growing you have no trouble at all realizing the real size of the oil supply. I knew this from the very start of the fire etc.
Spilling the equal of 5 times my pond of oil 5,000 barrels per day would not have even bothered the Gulf of Mexico. It naturally has seeps ( natural leaks of oil) that leak more oil than that per day. The volcano of oil down there is very very much larger than that.
Postscript
There is no way to get the size of this in mind. It is just too big to imagine. The slick is now as large as Maryland and growing. It will grow probably for 90 days or more. Even if contained tomorrow it will set the record for biggest in history.
Here is a fairly safe estimate of the economic damage to tourism, fisheries and the like in 3 US states. (AL, MS, LA) Over the next 10 years this will cost about $1 Trillion Dollars. BP will not pay this. This does not count damage to ports and trade generally. There is no way out now. What do Texas and Florida get ??? How about the east US Coast or even parts of Mexico? Does this go all the way damaging England and the northern EU? It certainly will not stop with just 3 states.
Imagine how much alternative energy work that would have produced. Now it is all waste. Now we must do it while it is hard. Imagine how easy it would have been a year or two ago when it was argued it was too expensive.
We have to turn around from this way and never look back. Freedom, prosperity and happiness will not be found in that eruption of oil in the Gulf of Mexico.
Some might think that I am against the oil industry. Actually I view them [rig workers, not execs] as some of the bravest most heroic people we have ever seen on earth. I have to say this plainly. I am in awe of many of the things they accomplish.
I just know that we must get a brighter future. This one has no hope.
# # #
Paul Noel, 52, works as Software Engineer (as Contractor) for the US Army at Redstone Arsenal, Alabama. He has a vast experience base including education across a wide area of technical skills and sciences. He supplies technical expertise in all areas required for new products development associated with the US Army office he works in. He supplies extensive expertise in understanding the Oil and Gas industry as well.
Born in Lynnwood Washington, he came to Huntsville Alabama, when his father moved to be part of NASA's effort to put men on the moon. Neal Armstrong may have gotten the ride, but his father's computers did the driving.
Paul is also a founding member of the New Energy Congress.
Previous Coverage
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Additional Links
- Million gallons of oil a day gush into Gulf of Mexico - Interviews with surviving Deepwater Horizon rig workers show how explosions led to what may be the world's worst oil spill (Independent; UK; May 9, 2010)
- Gulf Oil Spill - Radar Satellite Image May 8, 2010 - Rigorous calculations are linked in this article estimate over 1 million gallons a day (SkyTruth; May 8, 2010)
- Oil Spill Pics - sobering (Boston.com; May 12, 2010)
- First Underwater Images of the Gulf Oil Leak (What BP Won't Show You) (TreeHugger; May 12, 2010)
- BP.com - company website
- Deepwater Horizon.pdf - brief history and photos of fire.
- Leaked report: Government fears Deepwater Horizon well could become unchecked gusher 30 Apr 2010 'The following is not public' document --A confidential government report on the unfolding spill disaster in the Gulf makes clear the Coast Guard now fears the well could become an unchecked gusher shooting millions of gallons of oil per day into the Gulf. "The following is not public," reads the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Emergency Response document dated April 28. "Two additional release points were found today in the tangled riser. If the riser pipe deteriorates further, the flow could become unchecked resulting in a release volume an order of magnitude higher than previously thought."
Friday, May 07, 2010
ROV Vid: See the oil gushing into the water off the coast of Louisiana.
This is absolutely incredible… look in the background and you will see it. I think it's more than "5,000" gallons/day. How is this number even estimated, does anyone know?(Not rhetorical)
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/kevin-grandia/first-underwater-footage_b_567007.html
Thursday, May 06, 2010
Why Jamie Dimon will not debate Elizabeth Warren CFPA
/Step onto Soap Box
Elizabeth Warren who is championing (and should run) for the CFPA (Consumer Financial Protection Agency) should not be ignored by anyone that cares what happens to our economy in the long run. She has been promoting consumer protection what is now way back in 2004. Here on a PBS Frontline piece about, “The Secret History of Credit Cards” which aired on 11-23-2004. Which I highly recommended that everyone watch because you will understand why the banks are the way they are. Here she is again in Harvard Magazine, bring to light the harsh and deniable truth about, “The Middle Class on the Precipice.” I only bring this up because I came across this article on the Time, “Why Jamie Dimon is Afraid of Elizabeth Warren.” Why do you ask is the CEO of the 7th largest bank in the world afraid of this woman, with her background as professor of at Harvard in contractual law. Because he (and most all the big boys up in the top 1% of earners) know that she is right. I truly believe that there is a war on the middle class. This financial crsis is, in my humble opinion the nasty side of capitalism. I do not believe in the idea of Trickledown Economics from the Reagan years. In theory it is a sound idea, however over the last 30 or so years it has not panned out the way that it was sold, as evidenced here. Those on wall street are not the kings of the universe as they continue make themselves out to be. As Michael Moore said during an interviewed on the Hannitys', excerpt:
MOORE: Yes, yes, and there's a lot of small business people who struggle to get by. You know, I'm not against — when you say I'm against capitalism, I'm against what it has become.
HANNITY: In some instances.
MOORE: In most instances. Downtown here in the big picture of how this economy is being run, of how the money is being moved around. We don't make things anymore, Sean. Have you recognized that?
HANNITY: I've made things my whole life, so I agree with you. I agree with you.
MOORE: I'm talking about the money. We just make money off money now.
HANNITY: Some people do and some people do it in ethical way. Some people do it...
MOORE: But where's the stuff? Where's the next invention? Where's the thing — where's the incentive for our young people?
HANNITY: They're the ones that provide these start-up companies sometimes, the money that gets, you know, the next new drug that's going to extend or prolong our life. They're the ones that create the goods and services that we desire every day
We have less and less wealth in this country, we continue to ship it overseas in the way of jobs. We cannot have a strong middle class without a solid manufacturing base, which just emphasizes Mr. Moores’ point about. Only the self proclaimed kings of the universe seem to be making anything and it seems that their workmanship is pretty fucking shoddy. What check and balance is in place to examine the product, (that, remind you is able to be patented, copyrighted, and stolen), they are creating is safe. As you can see just by this site Foreclousures.com. Whenever 3M makes something for a home the FTC has to approve it through a process. Whenever BP drills a new oil well the EPA and Dept. of the Interior has to approve it through a process. Whenever something gets introduced into the food supply the FDA and USDA have to approve it through a process. So who checks to see if a mathematical formula, or the wording on a contract is going to bring a country to its knees before it happens? Or to check if it’s even fair.
Just for the record, I'm not against capitalism, I'm just not happy with the way it has evolved. I think it has lost its way.
This is a great op-ed by Elizabeth Warren on the middle class. 
Updated: 5/9/2010 13:15
/Step off of Soap Box
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